Here we go again with more complaining and analysis over the outcome of the 2016 presidential election. This time, there is a poll that supposedly says if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would win in a rematch with President Donald Trump.
But, is this really true? We have to delve a bit more deeply to find out.
By The Numbers
According to Hill.TV and HarrisX, who conducted the poll, if there were an election taking place now with only two candidates, Donald Trump and Clinton, this is what would happen:
- 40% of people who vote would choose Trump
- 50% of them would vote for Clinton
- The margin on error on that poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points
The poll results would change if more candidates, such as Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, were added to the mix:
- 36% of people who vote would choose Trump
- 44% would vote for Clinton
- 4% would vote Johnson
- 2% would choose Stein
Can Polls Truly be Trusted?
Leading up to the 2016 presidential election, various polls were predicting that Clinton would win by a wide margin. Some even said she was winning against Trump by as much as 8 percentage points. Expert election forecasters were saying that Clinton would win the election, with her chances being between 70% and 99%. Even the night of the election, the “experts” were saying Clinton was on her way to winning the pivotal election.
In fact, the recent polls just described had similar results that the pre-election polls had.
And we all know, from the election outcome, just how wrong polls can be. Trump won the electoral vote with 306, compared to Clinton’s 232. Trump won 46.4% of the popular vote, while Clinton got 48.5%.
In the United States, of course it’s electoral votes, not popular votes, that determine an election’s outcome.
Determining Any Meaning of the Recent Polls
It’s interesting to look at polls that speculate about events, but it really doesn’t matter what a poll today says about the 2016 election. For one, that election already took place. For another, polls many times are unable to truly predict what will happen, as just described. So polls oftentimes need to be taken with a grain of salt.
A poll saying Clinton would win an election held now is really just stirring up hatred and trouble while egging on Clinton supporters. We certainly do not need any more tension in the U.S. today.
Americans should accept the 2016 election results and move forward. Trump has made many moves in the right direction, and for example the economy and job market have been quite strong under his presidency. Rather than looking back at an election that happened years ago, we need to keep moving forward and working together toward positive improvements in our country. That is a much more productive use of our time and energy.
~ Patriotic Freedom Fighter